Global Fire Calendar

About

This calendar serves as a tool for fire prediction. Greenpeace Global Mapping Hub experts developed this tool using global information on fires since 2001 to identify 20 countries in need of attention in terms of fires, then mapped the fire risk by month globally and in each country.

Methodology

The analysis is based on fire hotspot statistics (MODIS active fire product) for 20 selected countries (Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Cameroon, Canada, Mainland China, Chrotia, DRC, Finland, Germany, Greece, India, Indonesia, Israel, Portugal, Russia, South Korea, Spain, Tanzania, US). The MODIS active fire product detects fires in 1-km pixels that are burning at the time of satellite overpass under relatively cloud-free conditions using a contextual algorithm.

In the first stage we found the long-term mean number of hotspots for each day from early 2001 to the end of 2022 (all available data) for each country and for the whole world. The results can be found in the graphs. We then totalled the daily mean hotspot values for each month for each country and globally.

For Country Level analysis we divided the months into 4 groups of relative fire probability within each country: low probability, medium probability, high probability and extremely high probability. This was based on the long-term mean number of hotspots for each month in that country. The results of this analysis do not form a basis for comparing countries but rather for national-level understanding and fire response preparation, including informing actors outside the country. The thresholds were calculated for each country separately from min and max month’s sum as equal intervals:
1st threshold: (max-min)/4+min
2st threshold: (max-min)/2+min
2st threshold: 3*((max-min)/4))+min

For the “Attention!” indication, we compared the months with ‘high’ and ‘extremely high’ hotspot levels from each country’s analysis (see above) against the global index. We calculated the number of hotspots per 1,000 sq km for each country and globally for each month of interest. The cases where country figures exceed the global index were considered as alarming months. This means we have marked not only the months with the most hotspots globally but also those months when the number of hotspots is growing rapidly, because this is the moment when response should begin. We have also added the “Attention!” indication to months where large-scale fires happen in ecosystems of planetary importance, in heavily populated areas and/or in significant for culture protected territories.

In case you have any feedback about this Calendar for us please use this form here.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons
Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License

About

Fires are both a driver and symptom of the climate crisis. Over the past years, we have witnessed intense fires all over the World. Fires can wreak havoc to forest communities and local populations, release enormous amounts of carbon to the atmosphere, cause severe damage to ecosystems and biodiversity and bring huge economic costs to countries. The scale of mega fires, agricultural and other conventional burnings cause global damage. Haze from fires endanger peoples health, while emergency preparedness in many countries are already stretched to the limit to handle the threat of the virus. The causes of fires are diverse and so must the solutions be. However, one thing is certain: we can not continue with an obsolete model based solely on fire extinction. Landscape management is essential. Pushing fires higher on the global agenda and forcing governments to address it is more urgent than ever.

Greenpeace global demands on fires

• Any land-use change to accommodate industrial agriculture anywhere must STOP. Natural areas need unprecedented protection. This means: Expansion into natural areas such as tropical rainforests, savannahs, peatlands for cattle, soy, maize, palm oil, or other commodity production must STOP.
• End the use of fossil fuels - A global green and just recovery that moves us beyond fossil fuels should take place now. This means: Accelerating divestment from high emissions sectors and work towards transitioning industry away from declining industries such as coal, oil and gas.